Dutch mobile market drops by 5.4% during Q1 2013

Leading market research firm Telecompaper has updated its five-year outlook for the Dutch mobile industry based on the recent quarterly results and current market conditions. For 2013 we expect the Dutch market to show a decline of around 3-4 percent to around EUR 5.6 billion service revenue at the end of the year.

For the period 2012-2017, the Dutch market is expected to show a negative CAGR of 1-2 percent, reaching around EUR 5.4 billion in 2017. The slightly negative outlook compared to previous forecast is due to expected late effects of the economic slowdown, further drop in voice revenues due to continued regulation and a larger impact from the threats of OTT and Wi-Fi. “Besides regulation, also in light of the shift to data-centric customer behaviour, operators will be forced to make further changes in their tariff pricing in order to counteract the continuous drop in voice revenues,” said Alejandra van de Roer, Telecompaper senior research analyst and author of Telecompaper’s quarterly mobile market monitor for The Netherlands.

In terms of overall service revenue performance, mainly KPN but also Vodafone increased its market share at T-Mobile’s expense which lost the most annually and quarterly. KPN increased its market share annually by 0.6 percent, while Vodafone was only up by 0.1 percent while T-Mobile lost 0.6 percent.
In terms of mobile SIMs (including MVNOs), the Dutch market saw a slight decrease of 0.4 percent annually to 20.4 million at the end of March 2013 (* see note). As a consequence mobile market penetration decreased from 122.2 percent in Q1 2012 to 121.4 percent in Q1 2013. Compared to a year ago market shares* have barely changed with KPN leading with 45 percent of all subscribers; Vodafone at 30 percent, while T-Mobile had 25 percent.

*Note: We have excluded M2M SIMs, so total subs and market shares cannot be compared to previous releases.

Telecompaper
This latest report from Telecompaper's continued research into developments in the Dutch communication services market looks at the leading Dutch mobile network operators: KPN, Vodafone, and T-Mobile including the MVNO market. It analyses first quarter 2013 results, both revenue and subscriber base, and compares the findings with results in the fourth quarter 2012 and first quarter 2012. The report provides splits at different levels, from postpaid to prepaid but also voice en non-voice each by individual operator. Additionally it also includes a five-year forecast (both revenue and subscriber) for the Dutch market. Single-user price for the report is EUR 495.00. More information can be found on our website.