Houten, The
Netherlands, 19 March 2014 - The Dutch mobile industry realised EUR 5.4
billion in service revenues for the full year 2013, showing for the
third consecutive time a drop of 6.7 percent compared to 2012. That
compares to a 4.5 percent annual decline in 2012 vs 2011 and a 3.8
percent decline in 2011 vs 2010. According to Telecompaper's quarterly
mobile market monitor, the main reason for these annual drops in revenue
remains the decline in voice revenue combined with a continuing
decrease in SMS revenue. The impact of regulation cuts is estimated at
about a third of the total annual drop and declined by about 17 percent
compared to 2012. Excluding this regulatory impact (mobile termination
and roaming) Telecompaper estimates the annual service revenue drop of
mobile network operators to be 4.6 percent instead of the 6.7 percent.
Non-voice
services, consisting mainly of data and SMS, are estimated to make up
41.4 percent of total mobile service revenue in 2013, but they are not
growing fast enough (particularly in the last quarters) to fully offset
the erosion in voice revenues. For the first time non-voice revenues
even showed an annual drop of 2.5 percent versus full year 2012, mainly
due to a strong double digit decrease in SMS revenues.
Seasonally
the fourth quarter is weaker compared to the third quarter and this
year’s mobile service revenue decreased 8.6 percent year-on-year to EUR
1.3 billion in the fourth quarter and fell by 4.5 percent compared to Q3
2013.
Telecompaper has updated its five-year
outlook for the Dutch mobile industry. Based on the recent quarterly
results and current market conditions, we expect the Dutch market to
show a decline of 4 percent to EUR 5.2 billion in service revenue over
the full year 2014. For the period 2013-2018, the Dutch market is
expected to show a negative CAGR of 1.5 percent, reaching around EUR 5.0
billion in revenues in 2018.
The slightly negative
outlook for the forecast period is mainly due to expected late effects
of the economic slowdown, continued regulation and the impact from the
threats of OTT and Wi-Fi. “Besides regulation, also in light with the
shift to data-centric customer behaviour, operators will be forced to
continue to adjust their tariff pricing in order to counteract the
continuous drop in voice revenues and effects of competition,” said
Alejandra van de Roer, author of Telecompaper’s quarterly mobile market
monitor for The Netherlands.
Looking at the
performance of the three mobile network operators (including whole-sale
revenues), the report shows that all operators had deteriorating mobile
service revenues with T-Mobile showing the smallest annual decline at
5.5 percent. In contrast, KPN showed the largest annual drop in total
service revenue in 2013 of 7.7 percent, while Vodafone’s revenues fell
by 6.4 percent.
In terms of total mobile SIMs
(including Tele2, Ziggo and the rest of MVNOs), the Dutch market saw a
small decrease of 1.1 percent annually to 20.5 million at the end of
2013, mainly due to the prepaid base decreasing (particularly at
Vodafone and T-Mobile). As a consequence mobile penetration decreased
from 123.6 percent in Q4 2012 to 121.8 percent in Q4 2013. For this
forecast period we expect total market to increase to 22.7 million
mobile SIMs in 2018 (excluding M2M).
Regarding
market shares of the MNOs KPN increased its share to 48 percent all SIMs
compared to end of last year, mainly due to growth in prepaid MVNOs.
Vodafone’s share declined to 26 percent and T-Mobile remained relatively
stable at 25 percent. Excluding M2M and MVNOs, market shares look
somewhat different with KPN dropping to 42 percent, while Vodafone and
T-Mobile increase to respectively 32 percent and 26 percent.
Telecompaper
This
report is based on Telecompaper's continuous research into developments
in the Dutch communication services market and looks at leading Dutch
mobile network operators KPN, Vodafone and T-Mobile, including Tele2,
Ziggo/ UPC and the rest of MVNOs. It analyses full year results but also
Q4 2013 results, both revenue and subscribers, and compares the
findings with results in the third quarter 2013 and fourth quarter 2012.
A breakdown of postpaid/prepaid and voice/non-voice revenues for each
operator is included. The report also provides a five-year forecast for
revenues and subscribers on the Dutch market. Single-user price for the
report is EUR 495. More information can be found on our website.
Contact
Alejandra van de Roer
Phone: +31 30 6349600
Info:
alejandra@telecompaper.com