LONDON, November 11, 2002 - There has been considerable momentum in Europe behind the concept of the "tablet PC," mainly driven by Microsoft through the introduction of Windows XP Tablet PC Edition and supporting OEMs. IDC forecasts a 2002 to 2007 CAGR of 65% for the entire Western European tablet PC market (convertible tablet PCs and slate tablet PCs), with convertible tablet PCs expected to provide the strongest growth. According to IDC's latest research, the initial target audiences are corporate users, "knowledge workers with a productivity focus," and vertical markets.
Several form factors have emerged to support Windows XP Tablet Edition, namely the slate tablet PC and convertible tablet PC. Slate tablets are the most accepted and familiar form factor and literally are a tablet form factor, whereas convertible tablet PCs are identical to traditional ultraportable notebooks in outlook, but the display clips back onto the keyboard to enable tablet functionality. It is also likely that variations on both types of device will emerge over the next few years.
"IDC believes that for tablet PCs to succeed they need to be available at a nominal increase in cost compared to current comparable notebook specifications. Over the forecast period, convertible tablet PCs have the greatest chance of success, as they combine the familiarity of a notebook form factor and operating system with a "task specific" tablet form factor," said Andrew Brown, Research Manager for EMEA Mobile Computing at IDC.
IDC does not expect the tablet PC market to represent a major threat to the established notebook market, although convertible tablet PCs are already being considered within the ultraportable portfolio of several vendors. Currently in Europe, the market is moving in the direction of two-spindle thin and light notebooks for business, which is also taking share away from the ultraportable market. The entry-level notebook market is currently the highest growth area, primarily due to the attractive price:power ratio and low penetration among home and small office (SoHo) and small business users. Vertical markets represent the clearest opportunity for tablet PCs, as well as traditional businesses, particularly where users are "customer facing."
Early issues with mechanical reliability on modular products and handwriting recognition may affect the initial optimism and sales traction motivated by the new products. However, with increasing reliability and stability, the new intuitive form factors may prove to be a further step on the road to pervasive computing. With a lowering in cost and increase in reliability, tablet PCs could become a more established form factor. Corporate IT decision makers in traditional horizontal markets may take longer to evaluate and gauge the stability of the products, and even if satisfied, are likely to deploy only in specific areas of an organization, such as to the sales force or to executives.
IDC believes that the components, convertible screen, digitizing components, and new software will ensure the machines are priced in the mid to high range of current laptops, and although it is the entry-level market for notebooks that continues to demonstrate the highest growth, the corporate renewal cycle is likely to show stronger growth between 2003 and 2004, with tablet PCs likely to figure in the consideration set.
Source: IDC, 2002
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Andrew Brown
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abrown@idc.com
Terry Cummings
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tcummings@idc.com